Time-lapse video of me sleeping

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

What's the first thing one does when one discovers ones' laptop has time-lapse video support? One spies on his unconscious self to see if one is actually a werewolf or Mr. Hyde.

Fortunately, the only disturbing thing I do while asleep is mysteriously fix the sheet when it comes undone (1:10).



For those interested in these things, I set it up to take one picture every 3 seconds from 9:45pm to 7:15 am. That's 11,400 pictures in 1:21 which comes to about 140 frames/second.

Palin/Africa-gate Was a Hoax!

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Apologies for all the baseless guffaws I've incited since the "news" that Sarah Palin didn't know Africa was a continent. Apparently it was an elaborate hoax that's been carried on for months and I fell for it hard, telling virtually everyone I know about it.

From the NY Times article:

“Turns out it was Martin Eisenstadt, a McCain policy adviser, who has come forward today to identify himself as the source of the leaks,” Mr. Shuster said.

Trouble is, Martin Eisenstadt doesn’t exist. His blog does, but it’s a put-on. The think tank where he is a senior fellow — the Harding Institute for Freedom and Democracy — is just a Web site. The TV clips of him on YouTube are fakes."

I actually have an interesting anecdote about another instance where the news didn't check their facts. A friend of a friend of mine, one Benjamin Vanderford faked a beheading video awhile back. The video was hosted on a plain ol' Web site with no evidence of a physical tape, or letter from the terrorists. It's of very low quality. And, here's the kicker, he states his name AND address clearly in the video. Despite all this, the media ran with it, assuming it was true without a single attempt to verify the authenticity.

When it was revealed that it was a hoax, he did a number of interviews. A notable quote about Ben was from Geraldo Rivera: "If i met this man in real life I would give him a good ass kicking". Here's a Google search for Brandon to give you an idea of the scope of the story.

Live Election Coverage Via MSNBC

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

This looks like a good feed to check for the day. Thought I'd put it here for convenience.

What a McCain Win Looks Like

Monday, November 3, 2008

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com did a neat article on the win scenarios his computer program shows as most likely for McCain.

Here's the most common win scenario by far (occurring 169 times out of 10,000 election simulations):



This is basically McCain winning all swing states, and all states only "leaning" Obama. This is basically the worst-case scenario I described in my blog post last week.

However, McCain's strategy is to win PA which would give him far more possible ways to win on election day. Here's a possibility where McCain wins Pennsylvania (highly unlikely -- occurred about 40 times out of 10,000 election simulations):



Visit the article to see the other win scenarios. Very interesting.

Famed Pollster Backs Me Up on Newsweek!

Not that my analysis last week on the importance of Virginia was all that difficult to come up with, but I still feel cool hearing Nate Silver, the brilliant statistician/analyst from fivethirtyeight.com agree with me, in a Newsweek interview no less:

Virginia, for my money, is the most important state in this election. If John McCain loses it, his path to victory is exceptionally narrow—he would need to pull out an upset in Pennsylvania, while holding on to Florida and Ohio, and avoiding a sweep out West.

Keep in mind, Obama doesn't need Virginia. McCain needs Virginia. Obama can win any number of ways. McCain only has a few. (See next post)

Row v. Wade

Friday, October 31, 2008

Courtesy of shirt.woot.com -- they sell one new t-shirt every day. This one is unfortunately, but not surprisingly, sold out.

Coverage of Obama Assassination Attempt: McCain Strategy?

Monday, October 27, 2008

First of all, I am NOT suggesting McCain or his campaign had anything to do with the "Obama assassination / mass murder attempt" hot off the presses right now -- my tin-foil hat is still collecting dust in my 2000 election closet.

What I am suggesting -- or rather, predicting -- is that the McCain campaign is going to exploit what is an opportunity for them to show Obama as a likely target of violence. If Obama's health is in danger, people may not want a mid-term upset -- the obvious irony being that McCain has a much greater risk to his health, and has a far worse potential successor.

So how will the McCain campaign exploit this tactfully? They can't just up and say "See? He's at risk cuz he's black!" No. They will say this:

"The McCain campaign is disgusted by the actions of these domestic, racist terrorists. We are all very fortunate that Senator Obama was not harmed and we offer our sincere condolences to him and his family."

They will bring up terrorism because people will favor a war-time Republican. They will say Obama was "fortunate" to imply that he was lucky "this time". And they will repeat it often.

Perhaps I'm being too cynical. I sure hope so. We'll see.

My heart does sincerely go out to Senator Obama and his family. This must be enormously frightening. Stay strong!

If Obama Wins Virginia (or Colorado), He Can't Lose

Friday, October 24, 2008

I was hoping to make this a much more polished post, but I'm racing to get out of work so it'll have to do ;)

As many of you know, I've been following the statistical analysis of this election obsessively. And according to my calculations, in the worst case, as long as Obama wins Virginia (a state that he's consistently been leading by 6 points) then he can't lose the election.

Here's why:



(Dark Blue = Obama will win them
Light Blue = Obama will likely win them
Blue border= Swing states. 50% win chance)

Let's imagine the worst-case scenario where Obama loses all the swing states, and all the light blue states. In total, that's 115 Electoral Votes. Leaving Obama 260 EV's. However, if Obama wins Virginia or Colorado, then he wins.

This puts the news that McCain is pulling out of Colorado in a very interesting perspective. Why is he pulling out of Colorado? To focus on Pennsylvania -- a state where Obama leads by about 12%. This is an absolute last-ditch effort for McCain, and one he will very likely lose.

Even if he manages to get Pennsylvania, all Obama needs to do is get Colorado, Virginia, and any one swing state to win. Since Obama will likely get both CO and VA, then all he has to do is get one swing state.

McCain has to either pull a rabbit out of his hat, or cheat the election process. My next blog entry is going to be on how difficult it is to cheat in this election. Stay Tuned!

Neuro-Science Thought Experiment on Facial Recognition

Friday, October 10, 2008

This isn't really a post as much as me just writing down a future reminder-note of what I think would be an interesting research project involving facial recognition in the brain. This note will remind me to Google it later and see if it exists already.

My thought is that if we were shown a picture of a total stranger who is standing in an area very familiar to us, then we would more easily recognize him or her later in public than if we were shown a picture of him or her in an unfamiliar area.

The idea behind this is similar to size reference in photographs: e.g. if we're shown a picture of a rock, we have no idea how big it actually is until we see something familiar next to it, like a hand (or even better: our own hand).

Now imagine you see a picture of a stranger, or even a celebrity. When you see this person in real life, you almost immediately notice how their face is different than you expected. This is because the mapping from 2 dimensions into 3 is not perfect, and a lack of reference in the photos you saw, I'm guessing, makes it less perfect.

If you instead see a picture of this person in your front lawn or in your room, then your extreme familiarity with the reference points should correct some of the subtle flaws in bone structure, even lighting. In other words, you subconsciously know how things "should look" in your familiar environments and inversely how things would look outside of the environment.

So it would be interesting to get 3 groups of people; the first group is shown pictures of a stranger in unfamiliar areas, the 2nd familiar areas, and the 3rd a mix. Testing recognition would be the hard part. I would choose one of these:

1. Have a line-up of strangers that all look very similar to each other and see who correctly guesses the right one.

2. Have the stranger walk into the testing facility just as the subjects leave and see who noticed him or her.

3. Show altered photographs of the stranger and see who most accurately "senses" the differences.

The applications for computerized facial recognition and 3-d mapping from a 2-d image are also interesting. Theoretically, you could thoroughly familiarize a computer with a space (say an airport) and use that knowledge to more accurately recognize faces of criminals walking about. Or beyond that, allow a computer to more quickly generate an understanding of new objects in a space by using pre-processed information to reduce the processing of real-time recognition.

Endeavor Reaches Out its Arm, Takes MySpace-Style Self-Portrait

Monday, August 25, 2008

NASA's famed Endeavor shuttle took this gorgeous self-portrait.


Here's one of NASA's leading engineers testing the extender-arm self-picture-taking apparatus:

McCain staffer disses D&D

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

McCain staffer disses D&D players:

"It may be typical of the pro-Obama Dungeons & Dragons crowd to disparage a fellow countryman's memory of war from the comfort of mom's basement, but most Americans have the humility and gratitude to respect and learn from the memories of men who suffered on behalf of others."

I would like to officially announce my membership to the "Pro-Obama Dungeons & Dragons crowd". If only some enterprising nerd had made a t-shirt for me to wear proudly, advertising my membership.

::SHOCK AND SURPRISE:: Someone DID!

No Caffeine: Day 1

Monday, August 18, 2008

I've decided to not drink any coffee this week. I'm not doing this for any particularly noble purpose, or to improve my health. In fact, I'm doing it so that my coffee next week will actually work: at an average of 3 cups a day every day for the last 3 months, all that the coffee is doing is battling my withdrawal symptoms. (Peter actually coincidentally posted about this the day I decided to destroy my life by quitting)

So here's my first day without caffeine:

8:30 am: Preparing for withdrawals by substituting the oral fixation. Made english muffin with plenty of butter, and warm vanilla soy milk.

9:00 am: I'm definitely drawn to the carafe.

....Updates as they come

Winner of the Annual Bad Writing Contest

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Every year, a contest is held for 'Worst opening line to a fictitious novel'. Here's this year's winning entry:

"Theirs was a New York love, a checkered taxi ride burning rubber, and like the city their passion was open 24/7, steam rising from their bodies like slick streets exhaling warm, moist, white breath through manhole covers stamped 'Forged by DeLaney Bros., Piscataway, N.J."

It's called the Bulwer-Lytton Fiction Contest, named after Victorian novelist Edward George Earl Bulwer-Lytton whose 1830 novel "Paul Clifford" famously begins "It was a dark and stormy night."

**UPDATE**

Here's my entry:

"The leaves fell in crimson unison, fluttering in synchrony with the currents and eddies of his stride as he sailed on along the park sidewalk with jaded indifference to the surrounding red beauty -- his lust for autumn now a flaccid and dysfunctional memory that no blue pill could ever revive, even for a few hours."

Link to Yahoo news article

Fox Host Refuses to Discuss Russian Invasion of Georgia

Monday, August 11, 2008

In reference to my previous post on the Russian invasion of Georgia a few days ago, Peter wrote a funny (though sadly accurate) comment:

"We should be used to this...the bush administration has been 'keeping the peace' in Iraq since 2003."

Joking aside, we apparently are used to this. Or at least, this Fox News host is; despite the interviewee insisting he talk about substantive issues like the conflict, he seems far more interested in the recent John Edwards affair scandal:

Fox News host avoids Russia-Georgia topic

I don't really watch TV these days. Is this battle being covered at all by the national news? I don't get the impression that it is.

150 Russian Tanks Have Entered Georgia

Friday, August 8, 2008

Russia is invading Georgia as we speak.

Russia has had peacekeepers in Georgia since 1992. Apparently, according to Russia, the Georgian peacekeepers opened fire on the Russian peacekeepers within the last 24 hours.

Now, war is no laughing matter -- but I don't think I could have come up with a more ironic statement if my life depended on it.

Peace be with those that die from this.

Bad-ass SpaceX CEO on the 3rd Launch Failure

Thursday, August 7, 2008

In case you're unaware, the 3rd launch attempt of the SpaceX Falcon rocket failed last week, losing a DoD satellite, 2 NASA satellites, and the ashes of 209 people including Scotty from Star Trek (why on earth did they put his ashes on a high-risk test launch?).

In case you're really unaware, SpaceX is a company led by PayPal founder Elon Musk whose goal is to make space transportation faster, and 10 times cheaper. They've had 2 other failed launches, but Musk is not giving up.

Wired Interview with Elon Musk

To be honest, the real reason I'm posting this is because of Elon's truly bad-ass quote about failure:

Wired.com: How do you maintain your optimism?

Musk: Do I sound optimistic?

Wired.com: Yeah, you always do.

Musk: Optimism, pessimism, fuck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work.

I wish all CEOs were this awesome.

Google Maps' Street View Now Covers Santa Barbara!

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Here's State Street.
Here's the face of Gibraltar.
Here's my high school.

I've been waiting for this for awhile. If you haven't seen Google Maps' Street View feature, it's incredibly scary incredible. Google basically drives around and takes pictures of everything and uploads it to Google Maps, giving you a complete, search-able, pictographic tour of a city.

It started with only big cities like Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, etc. Well now it's come to lil' ol' Santa Barbara*. Even Ventura and Ojai!

Can you find yourself?

*Props to Lauren for pointing this out to me

My Name Featured on the Onion News Network

Sunday, August 3, 2008

I have a friend named Dan who works for The Onion, the most hilarious fake news on the planet. About a year ago, he used his massive influence in the organization to get me my name featured on two of the episodes of the Onion News Network, a spin-off of CNN.

In fact, Dan himself has appeared in the ONN as I just discovered this morning perusing their site:

("Steve Campbell" AKA Dan, at 0:50. "Campbell", btw, is the last name of one of my best friends from Ojai)

Study Finds Young People Remain Apathetic About Office Politics

Here are the two videos:
("Rachael" at 0:53. Me at 0:55. Our high school english teacher "Laura Bickford" is also featured)

'Students First In Line' Program To Offer Job Training At Needy Schools

("Pvt. Donnie K" spoken and displayed at 0:30)

Messages From Our Troops To The Families They Can Barely Remember

**Edited post to omit my name... Google's web spider is just too damned efficient.

James Buchanan Got a New Haircut

"Indeed! -- my collar is protruding upwards; this due, in part, to my belief that others should admire how muscular in physique, and fair of skin, I am. And if the fair ladies of the court, having gazed on my lustrous countenance, should not appreciate the novel cut of my locks, I do proclaim them tarts. Frilly tarts. Tarts." -- James Buchanan.

Deeaaaaaad!!

Saturday, August 2, 2008

HAhahahahahahahahaha:

Rush Plays Rock Band

Saturday, July 26, 2008

If the embedded video doesn't load, here's a link.

This Girl Had Too Much to Drink

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

I went to a co-worker's birthday get-together at the Brew House and saw this girl blacked out passed out on the table. She barely even touched that drink!

On Humor: Dissection and Destruction

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

"Humor can be dissected as a frog can, but the thing dies in the process and the innards are discouraging to any but the pure scientific mind." -- E.B. White

I think one of the funniest things I ever saw was a book on my former employer Harley Hahn's shelf titled "On Humor". It was brown, coverless, withered, and stale.

In a way, it's fitting: trying to figure out humor is such a depressing topic; I usually just keep it to myself, but, it's on my mind, so it's on my blog :)

What are your opinions or theories on what makes something funny? Why do we sense funniness? What's the purpose? Do only humans understand jokes? If so, could humor just be some useless biological quirk like hiccups? -- a reaction developed by drinking carbonated consciousness too quickly?

It just seems strange that of all things to which we would evolve an uncontrollable physical response, the recognition of situational irony would be among them.



Here's a list of observations that were useful to me in coming up with a theory:

1. Explaining a joke ruins it
2. Some things are only funny because they weren't intended to be
   
3. Irony or juxtaposition can be tragic and humorless. What is the secret ingredient?
4. "It's funny cuz it's true"
   
5. A funny situation that happened to your roommate's boss's nephew is not as funny as the situation that happened to you
6. Delivery is as much, or more, important than content
7. Hearing a joke from someone you don't think has a good sense of humor makes you less likely to think it's funny.
8. We don't laugh much by ourselves.
9. "You had to be there"
10. We laugh at misfortune sometimes, sympathetic to it at others
    

And just for old tyme yucks, here's the oldest joke in the world (literally).

How to write for the web: an eye-tracking study

Monday, July 21, 2008

An eye-tracking study of web users has suggested some principles of good web writing:

• Put the conclusion of your article in the first paragraph
• Use bulleted lists
  
• Make the first words of each paragraph direct and descriptive
• Cut down on words.

These conclusions were made by tracking the eye movement of readers as they look at Web sites. As seen below, users read sites in an "F" pattern:


In general, we read the first and seconds sections somewhat fully, and skim the first words of everything else along the "stem" of the F. Therefore:

• Put the most important information in the first 2 paragraphs
• Put each new idea in its own paragraph
• Be direct with the first words of each paragraph
• Reduce word count

There are many more principles gleaned from this study (including linking to outside sources). The above is just an introduction.

Coming soon: the art of writing e-mails.

"Our long nightmare of peace and prosperity is over"

Thursday, July 17, 2008

The Onion has a pretty good history of predicting the future.

Their prediction of Bush's legacy is of course spot-on.

Little Red Knife, Episode 2

Monday, July 7, 2008

Little Red Knife, Episode 1

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

I re-discovered this old web comic I started making with MSPaint long ago. The premise: MacGuyver has been incarcerated for an unknown, heinous crime and escapes maximum security prison. The warden takes the law into his own hands and follows MacGuyver on an epic trail of psychological warfare, and tool-improvisation. See the darkness that truly lies behind that mullet of his.

Click below to see episode 1.

(By the way, frame 3 is a shattered mug of coffee. So sue me.)

The 6 fallacies everyone should know

Saturday, June 28, 2008

One of the most useful things I ever learned was the logical fallacies. A fallacy is basically an illogical line of reasoning. There are many different types of fallacies, but some are far more common than others. If you spend just a few minutes learning these 6, I guarantee you'll see the media in a whole new light: they're everywhere: particularly with politicians, talk show hosts, friends, and advertisements.

1. Ad Hominem (AKA the "No YOUUUuuuu!" fallacy)

Bob: War is wrong: it is often an unnecessary waste of lives and money.
Dave: You work at Halliburton, Bob!

Dave ignores Bob's reasoning and instead attacks Bob. Bob may be a hypocrite, but that has no affect on the truth of his statement.

2. Begging the Question (AKA the "I'm right because I'm obviously right" fallacy)

Carol: Gay marriage is wrong because marriage should only be between a man and a woman.

Despite common usage, Begging the Question is synonymous with Circular Reasoning. Here, Carol is saying that her statement is true because... it's true! Another good example is asserting that God exists because the Bible says so.

3. Appeal to Tradition (AKA the "It's always been done this way" fallacy)

Bill: The death penalty is wrong
Dave: Why? The death penalty has been used for thousands of years!

This is the opposite of the Appeal to Novelty fallacy.

4. Slippery Slope (AKA the "What's next? Men marrying dogs?" fallacy)

How many times have you heard the above argument against gay marriage? A slippery slope fallacy is committed when someone takes a statement several steps further than is realistic, and attacks that inflated statement. This is similar to a straw man fallacy.

5. Straw Man (AKA the "Why do you hate America?" fallacy)

Carol: The Patriot Act invades our constitutional protection from unlawful search and seizure
Jill: Why do you want the terrorists to win so badly?

Here, Jill has contorted Carol's position into a "straw man" replica and attacks that instead.

6. Appeal to Popularity (AKA the "Cummon... everyone's doin' it!" fallacy)

Verizon: Join the 67 million satisfied Verizon Wireless subscribers!

This is basically a form of peer pressure. Very common in advertisements and politics. (Besides, everyone knows Verizon sucks ;) )

There you have it. There are dozens more fallacies, but I consider these to be the most important, and the easiest to find in day-to-day life. They're not always obvious, so be on the lookout.

A challenge to your emotions (Where the Hell is Matt?)

Friday, June 27, 2008

I challenge each and every one of you to watch the following without feeling better about the world. Bonus points if you don't even smile a little bit.

Where the Hell is Matt? (2008 edition)


For those who don't know, Matt was once a video game designer, and decided at 26 to do something more meaningful with his life. He has been badly dancing around the world ever since and became an internet sensation awhile back. This is his latest edition. Strangely inspirational.

Interview with Matt

Physics, Dominoes, and the Fallacy of Blame

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Want to give the bird to the guy who cut you off this morning? That's silly: he had no choice in the matter. Disgusted by Bush's war-lust? Why? It's no fault of his. God does not play dice, we weren't hugged enough as children, and guns don't kill people, those tsunami-causing butterflies in Japan do.

You guessed it: we're talking determinism, people. Determinism is based somewhat on the theory that a universal formula exists describing all velocities, positions, and states of all matter in the universe, for any moment in time. More simply put: actions are predictable, physical consequences of prior actions. Even more simply put: Cause and effect, and effect, and effect. This is elegantly summarized by Einstein's famous paraphrased quotation: "God does not play dice" (*).


This leaves little room for our beloved concept of "free will". If there exists such a formula, then that warm, fuzzy feeling that we are making our own choices is just an illusion caused by our internal frame of reference (please see: "The Sun Obviously Revolves Around the Earth Because we See it Rise and Fall and Stuff", written in part by Ages, The Middle).

An analogy to this can be made with book characters. The characters, if asked, would say that the actions they take on the next page are their own. Since they live in their own frame of reference, this is a natural assumption. Yet we as readers can look from the outside, and can see that every time we turn to that page, they do the exact same thing. They have absolutely no choice in the matter (if you're having trouble with the thought that this analogy implies there is an "author", just imagine that the "author" is the formula generating output).

Free will is an essential component of blame, judgment, and moral responsibility. We do not blame the bullet (though perhaps the maker of the bullet) for death, nor do we blame the body (though perhaps the Maker of the body) for bleeding to death, but rather the shooter of the gun (**). We blame him or her because he or she had "free will", and "made a choice" to fire it. And inversely, we do NOT blame the firer of the gun if he or she had NO choice in the matter (e.g. self defense, or pure accident).

So, finally, the point of this entire post is made obvious: blaming a person for the evil he or she commits is non-sense. Just as praising those for the good that they do is non-sense. Like dominoes in line, we fall when and where the domino behind us forces us to fall.

Please note that I'm not saying you shouldn't blame or praise; in fact, "should" is another non-sense phrase in determinism. You either will do something, or you won't. If you're still angry at Bush, yep. You are. If you flip off that driver on the free way, yep. You did. The implications of this post are only whether or not it really makes any sense.

Period.

* Yes, quantum mechanics does disturb the idea of physical determinism slightly. Apparently, QM is truly random. However, I don't think this affects the morality argument since random quantum motion hardly can be considered the basis for free will. In fact, if our actions are the result of randomized occurrences, it makes us seem even less to blame for our actions.

** Relevant Eddie Izzard quote

5 writing tips for avoiding controversy

Thursday, June 19, 2008

By special request, here are my expert tips for avoiding the devil's advocate effect:

First, a distinction:

Arguing: Asserting your own opinion
Advocating: Representing an opinion (not necessarily yours)

People only feel a need to advocate when the arguer makes no allowance for the possibility they've overlooked something or that there could be another side.

For Example, let's take a statement that's closed-ended, and puts even agreeable readers uncomfortable or defensive, and rework it step-by-step:

"John McCain's retarded. Period."

1. Use specifics

"John McCain's retarded [environmental strategy is absolutely, completely absurd]. Period."

2. Remove all adverbs. Writers recommend this in general because they are over-used and place unnecessary emphasis on the adjective.

"John McCain's retarded environmental strategy is absolutely, completely absurd. Period."

3. Remove or replace insulting words and phrases.

"John McCain's retarded environmental strategy is absurd ineffective. Period."

4. Acknowledge the possibility of other opinions. This has the added benefit of letting you save face if you missed something. Embarrassment can lead quickly to hostility.

"[I personally believe that ]John McCain's environmental strategy is ineffective. Period. Thoughts?"

and such as the iraq ;)

5. Back it up.

"I believe that John McCain's environmental strategy is ineffective[, because history has shown that the sale of quotas creates a corporate black market, further encouraging corruption]. Thoughts?"

As you can see, by acknowledging the opinions of others, and providing intelligent support for your own opinions, a reader is less likely to feel defensive, and will reply with the same respect and intelligence you gave them, lest they look like the closed-minded ones.

T minus 1 hour to Firefox 3

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

I'm wiggling and giggling in my seat for the 10:00am release of Firefox 3. Like movie previews, I've deliberately avoided beta-testing this release so I can more easily notice the drastic performance improvements. Firefox 3 promises to be the fastest browser to start up, and to surf with, without hogging your CPU resources.

Here are some real-world metrics to give you some perspective.

Yeah. I'm pretty excited.

Re-re-re-re-joining the blogging community

Monday, June 16, 2008

Hello two people everyone!

It's great to be back in the blogiverse. As my first official gripe, I'd like to express how disappointed I am that "geekofalltrades" was taken.

Thank you.