Time-lapse video of me sleeping

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

What's the first thing one does when one discovers ones' laptop has time-lapse video support? One spies on his unconscious self to see if one is actually a werewolf or Mr. Hyde.

Fortunately, the only disturbing thing I do while asleep is mysteriously fix the sheet when it comes undone (1:10).



For those interested in these things, I set it up to take one picture every 3 seconds from 9:45pm to 7:15 am. That's 11,400 pictures in 1:21 which comes to about 140 frames/second.

Palin/Africa-gate Was a Hoax!

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Apologies for all the baseless guffaws I've incited since the "news" that Sarah Palin didn't know Africa was a continent. Apparently it was an elaborate hoax that's been carried on for months and I fell for it hard, telling virtually everyone I know about it.

From the NY Times article:

“Turns out it was Martin Eisenstadt, a McCain policy adviser, who has come forward today to identify himself as the source of the leaks,” Mr. Shuster said.

Trouble is, Martin Eisenstadt doesn’t exist. His blog does, but it’s a put-on. The think tank where he is a senior fellow — the Harding Institute for Freedom and Democracy — is just a Web site. The TV clips of him on YouTube are fakes."


I actually have an interesting anecdote about another instance where the news didn't check their facts. A friend of a friend of mine, one Benjamin Vanderford faked a beheading video awhile back. The video was hosted on a plain ol' Web site with no evidence of a physical tape, or letter from the terrorists. It's of very low quality. And, here's the kicker, he states his name AND address clearly in the video. Despite all this, the media ran with it, assuming it was true without a single attempt to verify the authenticity.

When it was revealed that it was a hoax, he did a number of interviews. A notable quote about Ben was from Geraldo Rivera: "If i met this man in real life I would give him a good ass kicking". Here's a Google search for Brandon to give you an idea of the scope of the story.

Live Election Coverage Via MSNBC

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

This looks like a good feed to check for the day. Thought I'd put it here for convenience.

What a McCain Win Looks Like

Monday, November 3, 2008

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com did a neat article on the win scenarios his computer program shows as most likely for McCain.

Here's the most common win scenario by far (occurring 169 times out of 10,000 election simulations):



This is basically McCain winning all swing states, and all states only "leaning" Obama. This is basically the worst-case scenario I described in my blog post last week.

However, McCain's strategy is to win PA which would give him far more possible ways to win on election day. Here's a possibility where McCain wins Pennsylvania (highly unlikely -- occurred about 40 times out of 10,000 election simulations):



Visit the article to see the other win scenarios. Very interesting.

Famed Pollster Backs Me Up on Newsweek!

Not that my analysis last week on the importance of Virginia was all that difficult to come up with, but I still feel cool hearing Nate Silver, the brilliant statistician/analyst from fivethirtyeight.com agree with me, in a Newsweek interview no less:

Virginia, for my money, is the most important state in this election. If John McCain loses it, his path to victory is exceptionally narrow—he would need to pull out an upset in Pennsylvania, while holding on to Florida and Ohio, and avoiding a sweep out West.


Keep in mind, Obama doesn't need Virginia. McCain needs Virginia. Obama can win any number of ways. McCain only has a few. (See next post)

 
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