What a McCain Win Looks Like

Monday, November 3, 2008

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com did a neat article on the win scenarios his computer program shows as most likely for McCain.

Here's the most common win scenario by far (occurring 169 times out of 10,000 election simulations):



This is basically McCain winning all swing states, and all states only "leaning" Obama. This is basically the worst-case scenario I described in my blog post last week.

However, McCain's strategy is to win PA which would give him far more possible ways to win on election day. Here's a possibility where McCain wins Pennsylvania (highly unlikely -- occurred about 40 times out of 10,000 election simulations):



Visit the article to see the other win scenarios. Very interesting.